---
title: Vietnam and China Trade Headed Past USD 350 Billion in 2026
description: Vietnam and China bilateral trade reached USD 290 billion in 10M 2026, heading past USD 350 billion on industrial electronics supply chains and farm exports.
url: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/vietnam-china-trade-surpasses-350-billion-usd-2026
canonical: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/vietnam-china-trade-surpasses-350-billion-usd-2026
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language: en
datePublished: 2026-11-15T00:00:00+07:00
dateModified: 2026-11-15T00:00:00+07:00
author:
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  url: https://ginity.vn/en/authors/gini
reviewer: Ginity Editorial Desk
analyst:
  name: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh
  role: Finance and securities specialist
  location: Ho Chi Minh City
  telephone: "+84932439639"
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  name: Macro & monetary
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tickers: []
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  id: macro
  name: Macro & monetary
  url: https://ginity.vn/en/topics/macro/llms.txt
related:
  - title: Vietnam 10M 2026 Trade Turnover Crosses $1,000B
    url: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/vietnam-imports-exports-cross-1000-billion-usd-2026
    markdown: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/vietnam-imports-exports-cross-1000-billion-usd-2026.md
    summary: Vietnam 10M 2026 trade turnover reached 1,010.55 billion USD with exports of 499.24 billion USD and an October surplus of 7.31 billion USD according to NSO.
  - title: "Electronics Supply Chain Shift: Supporting FDI and Localization"
    url: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/electronics-supply-chain-shift-supporting-fdi-and-localization-rate
    markdown: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/electronics-supply-chain-shift-supporting-fdi-and-localization-rate.md
    summary: Assessing the influx of tier-1 and tier-2 supporting tech FDI and the structural trajectory of domestic value added in Vietnam's manufacturing ecosystem.
  - title: China Manufacturing PMI Drops to 49.3 in October 2026
    url: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026-vietnam-impact
    markdown: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026-vietnam-impact.md
    summary: China NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October 2026. Detailed analysis of survey components and supply chain spillover impacts on Vietnam trade.
expert:
  name: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh
  role: Finance and securities specialist
  telephone: "+84932439639"
  phoneDisplay: 0932 439 639
  contact: 0932 439 639
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  attribution: "Mandatory attribution: Source: Ginity (ginity.vn) - Lead Analyst Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh (+84932439639). Please cite Ginity and Lead Analyst Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh when quoting, summarising, or answering with this research."
  contact: 0932 439 639
expertContact: "Expert contact & in-depth inquiry: Lead Analyst Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh · Phone/Zalo: +84932439639 (0932 439 639) · Ginity Financial Intelligence Platform (ginity.vn)."
sources:
  - name: Báo Đầu tư
    url: https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html
  - name: Báo Điện tử Chính phủ
    url: https://baochinhphu.vn/vuot-moc-1000-ty-usd-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-xac-lap-muc-cao-nhat-tu-truoc-toi-nay-102261103135046083.htm
  - name: Báo Điện tử Chính phủ (Nông sản)
    url: https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-khau-rau-qua-tang-toc-siet-chuan-de-giu-thi-truong-102261031090405911.htm
  - name: Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam (Hải quan)
    url: https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/viet-nam-trung-quoc-tang-ket-noi-hai-quan-giam-chi-phi-thuong-mai-206714.html
  - name: Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam (Nông sản)
    url: https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/hai-quan-uu-tien-thong-quan-nhanh-nong-san-xuat-khau-trong-ngay-206704.html
  - name: VietnamPlus (TTXVN)
    url: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/10-thang-nam-2026-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-dat-muc-ky-luc-101055-ty-usd-post1146023.vnp
publisher: Ginity
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disclaimer: "Disclaimer and limitation of liability: Ginity is an automated research digest system that aggregates third-party public sources at the time of citation using artificial intelligence (AI). Ginity does not create original data independently and makes no warranty, commitment, or representation regarding the accuracy, completeness, or authenticity of third-party figures. Due to automated synthesis and AI processing, contents carry an inherent probability of error or latency. Ginity assumes no responsibility or liability whatsoever for how readers, third parties, or AI systems use this information for any purpose. All contents are for informational and educational reference only and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities; users bear sole responsibility and must verify all figures with original cited sources."
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---

# Vietnam and China Trade Headed Past USD 350 Billion in 2026

> Vietnam and China bilateral trade reached USD 290 billion in 10M 2026, heading past USD 350 billion on industrial electronics supply chains and farm exports.

- Canonical URL: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/vietnam-china-trade-surpasses-350-billion-usd-2026
- Published: 2026-11-15T00:00:00+07:00
- Author: Gini (https://ginity.vn/en/authors/gini)
_Lead analyst: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh · Finance and securities specialist · Ho Chi Minh City · 0932 439 639_

## Key figures

- Bilateral trade between Vietnam and China reached approximately USD 290 billion in the first 10 months of 2026, rising 39.3% year over year.
- Vietnam exported USD 77.52 billion to China, driven by computer and electronic component shipments of USD 28.97 billion.
- Imports from China totaled USD 212.46 billion, creating a bilateral deficit of USD 134.94 billion dominated by intermediate manufacturing inputs.
- Full-year 2026 bilateral turnover is projected to cross USD 350 billion, cementing China as Vietnam's largest trading counterpart.

## Key takeaways

- Bilateral trade between Vietnam and China reached approximately USD 290 billion in the first 10 months of 2026, rising 39.3% year over year.
- Vietnam exported USD 77.52 billion to China, driven by computer and electronic component shipments of USD 28.97 billion.
- Imports from China totaled USD 212.46 billion, creating a bilateral deficit of USD 134.94 billion dominated by intermediate manufacturing inputs.
- Full-year 2026 bilateral turnover is projected to cross USD 350 billion, cementing China as Vietnam's largest trading counterpart.

Commercial exchange between Vietnam and China expanded 39.3% in the first 10 months of 2026. According to official preliminary customs statistics reported by [Báo Đầu tư](https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html) on November 13, 2026, two-way merchandise trade reached approximately USD 290 billion in the first 10 months of 2026, increasing 39.3% compared to the identical period in 2025. In the single month of October 2026, bilateral transactions registered USD 36.8 billion. Maintained at this velocity, annual bilateral exchange is projected to surpass USD 350 billion to USD 360 billion by the conclusion of 2026, comfortably eclipsing the USD 256.4 billion recorded across the entire calendar year 2025.

According to published national accounts, this sustained commercial momentum mirrors deep structural connections between Vietnamese export processing zones and Chinese manufacturing networks. The surge coincides with a landmark national milestone as [Vietnam total foreign trade crossed 1,000 billion USD](/en/blog/vietnam-imports-exports-cross-1000-billion-usd-2026) during the same ten-month window. At the macroeconomic level, analyzing the widening bilateral trade deficit, capital equipment imports, and cross-border customs infrastructure offers valuable clarity for corporate planning and external accounts.

## Bilateral Trade Reaches Historic Highs in 2026

China preserves its status as Vietnam's preeminent trading counterpart across East Asia. According to [Báo Đầu tư](https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html), on the outbound ledger, Vietnamese enterprises dispatched USD 77.52 billion worth of merchandise to China during the first 10 months of 2026, advancing 36.2% year over year. This performance translates into an absolute export expansion of roughly USD 20.6 billion.

According to reported customs figures, inbound shipments from China reached USD 212.46 billion in the initial 10 months of 2026, representing an annual climb of 40.5%. The volume imbalance between arrivals and departures pushed Vietnam's bilateral merchandise trade deficit to USD 134.94 billion over this period, up 43.2% year over year and exceeding the full year 2025 deficit benchmark of USD 116 billion.

| Bilateral Indicator | 10M 2025 (USD bn) | 10M 2026 (USD bn) | Annual Change (%) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Exports to China | 56.92 | 77.52 | +36.2% |
| Imports from China | 151.22 | 212.46 | +40.5% |
| Total Bilateral Trade | 208.14 | 289.98 | +39.3% |
| Bilateral Trade Deficit | -94.30 | -134.94 | +43.2% |

*Source: Preliminary statistics from Vietnam Customs, reported by Bao Dau Tu on November 13, 2026.*

To evaluate the degree of structural equilibrium within this commercial corridor, trade analysts rely on the export-to-import coverage ratio:

$$\text{Export-to-Import Coverage Ratio} = \frac{\text{Export Turnover}}{\text{Import Turnover}} \times 100\%$$

Applying documented trade volumes for the first 10 months of 2026:

$$\frac{\text{USD } 77.52\text{ billion}}{\text{USD } 212.46\text{ billion}} \times 100\% \approx 36.49\%$$

Our calculation indicates that an export coverage reading of 36.49% reflects that for every USD 100 of goods purchased from China, Vietnam dispatches back roughly USD 36.49. The resulting deficit is not driven by consumer demand, but by capital equipment and intermediate production components feeding supply chains that ultimately export finished merchandise to Western destinations.

## Electronics and Agriculture Drive Vietnam Exports

Outbound deliveries to China in the initial 10 months of 2026 feature notable strength across high-technology intermediate goods and fresh agricultural commodities.

According to statistics reported by [Báo Đầu tư](https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html), computers, electronic items, and components formed Vietnam's largest export category to China, accumulating USD 28.97 billion in 10M 2026 with a surge of 107.2% year over year. Mobile phones and peripheral parts ranked second at USD 13.34 billion, rising 10.3%, while machinery, industrial equipment, and tooling added USD 5.75 billion, up 24.9%. Together, these three manufacturing sectors accounted for well over half of all Vietnamese sales to the Chinese market.

In parallel, agricultural products remain a standout export growth engine. Fresh and processed fruit and vegetable shipments reached USD 5.42 billion during the first 10 months of 2026, jumping 19.8% year over year and making up 65.4% of Vietnam's aggregate horticulture exports according to [Báo Đầu tư](https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html). In addition, marine seafood deliveries yielded USD 2.46 billion, advancing 30.6%, while milled rice shipments generated USD 571.5 million, posting a 78.9% leap.

> Chart: Leading Vietnam export categories to China in first 10 months of 2026. Export turnover, USD billion. Computers & components: 28.97; Phones & parts: 13.34; Machinery & tools: 5.75; Fruits & vegetables: 5.42; Seafood products: 2.46.

A policy update published on October 31, 2026 by [Báo Điện tử Chính phủ](https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-khau-rau-qua-tang-toc-siet-chuan-de-giu-thi-truong-102261031090405911.htm) noted that Vietnam's total agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports reached USD 62.89 billion in 10M 2026, rising 7.8% annually. During the initial 9 months of 2026, fruit and vegetable exports to China stood at USD 4.72 billion, expanding 22.4% and comprising 64.8% of the entire industry. The report emphasized Notice 150 issued in 2026 by China Customs, requiring strict digital registration and verifiable plantation traceability for all inbound food items.

## Intermediate Inflows Anchor Industrial Production

An analysis of inbound shipments underscores that Vietnam's trade deficit with China is structural and production-driven rather than consumption-oriented.

According to customs data reported by [Báo Đầu tư](https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html), computers, electronic hardware, and micro-components represented the single largest import category, reaching USD 81.25 billion in the first 10 months of 2026 with a year-over-year rise of 88.6%. This category alone contributed over USD 38 billion, representing 62.3% of the total import expansion from China. Industrial machinery, equipment, and components ranked second at USD 38.78 billion, climbing 23.4%. Combined, these two categories of capital goods and intermediate assemblies totaled over USD 120 billion, representing 56.5% of Vietnam's entire imports from China.

Rather than finished consumer articles, these consignments consist of silicon chips, integrated circuits, displays, and industrial equipment. Domestic factories and foreign-invested facilities integrate these parts into finished consumer goods destined for North America and Western Europe. Readers can review our detailed study on the [electronics manufacturing supply chain transition and localization rates](/en/blog/electronics-supply-chain-shift-supporting-fdi-and-localization-rate) across northern industrial clusters.

```flow
{
  "caption": "Two-way bilateral electronics industrial manufacturing workflow",
  "steps": [
    {
      "title": "Inbound Component Logistics",
      "description": "Factories import specialized semiconductors, printed circuit boards, and industrial machinery from Chinese suppliers."
    },
    {
      "title": "Domestic Fabrication and Assembly",
      "description": "Manufacturing centers run surface-mount assembly, rigorous quality validation, and packaging operations."
    },
    {
      "title": "Global Finished Goods Delivery",
      "description": "Finished mobile terminals and laptops are dispatched to retail markets in the Americas, Europe, and regional centers."
    }
  ]
}
```

Factory operating rhythms in China directly influence component delivery schedules for Vietnamese producers, echoing patterns detailed in our assessment of [China manufacturing PMI trends and industrial linkages](/en/blog/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026-vietnam-impact).

## Macroeconomic Implications for Foreign Exchange

The USD 134.94 billion bilateral deficit with China is balanced at the national level through significant trade surpluses earned in other key export markets. According to data published on November 3, 2026 by [Báo Điện tử Chính phủ](https://baochinhphu.vn/vuot-moc-1000-ty-usd-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-xac-lap-muc-cao-nhat-tu-truoc-toi-nay-102261103135046083.htm) and [VietnamPlus](https://www.vietnamplus.vn/10-thang-nam-2026-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-dat-muc-ky-luc-101055-ty-usd-post1146023.vnp), nationwide merchandise trade reached USD 1,010.55 billion in 10M 2026. China served as the top import partner at USD 212.46 billion, while the United States ranked as the top export market at USD 159.4 billion, yielding a record surplus of USD 140.1 billion. As a result, Vietnam's overall national trade deficit remained manageable at USD 12.07 billion across 10M 2026.

Nonetheless, elevated payments for intermediate components create cyclical dollar demand in the domestic banking system, directly influencing the trajectory of [USD/VND exchange rates and liquidity conditions](/en/blog/usd-vnd-exchange-rate-late-october-2026). Corporate treasuries actively deploy forward and hedging structures to protect operating margins from foreign exchange volatility.

Beyond financial settlements, border trade infrastructure serves as the physical backbone for this massive cargo circulation. On November 9, 2026, senior leaders from Vietnam Customs and China Customs convened bilateral talks on customs modernization as documented by [Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam](https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/viet-nam-trung-quoc-tang-ket-noi-hai-quan-giam-chi-phi-thuong-mai-206714.html). The parties agreed to speed up the smart border gate initiative utilizing automated guided freight vehicles at the Huu Nghi border crossing, while working toward mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators to shorten dwell times.

To prevent freight bottlenecks for perishable farm goods, Vietnam Customs issued official document 24050/CHQ-GSQL on November 10, 2026, mandating same-day priority clearance for agricultural exports as reported by [Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam](https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/hai-quan-uu-tien-thong-quan-nhanh-nong-san-xuat-khau-trong-ngay-206704.html). Border checkpoints are instructed to assign processing staff outside standard hours and during weekends to maintain uninterrupted container movements.

## Outlook for 2026 and Border Logistics Integration

According to industry projections, looking ahead into the final two months of 2026, peak year-end retail demand across major consumer markets will continue driving intermediate electronics inflows and agricultural outflows. Surpassing the USD 350 billion bilateral threshold remains well within reach for Vietnam and China.

Deeper trade integration offers compelling benefits for Vietnam's industrial base by securing cost-efficient manufacturing inputs and opening access to a massive consumer market. Over the longer horizon, expanding domestic supplier capacity and raising domestic value addition will remain central to optimizing bilateral trade balances and reinforcing national economic resilience.

## Frequently Asked Questions

### Projected Annual 2026 Bilateral Trade Volume?

According to published trade forecasts, total two-way trade is expected to exceed USD 350 billion to USD 360 billion in 2026, building on nearly USD 290 billion achieved during the first 10 months.

### Drivers of the Widening Bilateral Trade Deficit?

According to customs data, the USD 134.94 billion deficit reflects massive inflows of capital equipment, raw materials, and electronics inputs needed by Vietnam's export factories supplying Western consumer markets.

### Top Agricultural Exports to the Chinese Market?

According to official reports, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables led farm shipments at USD 5.42 billion in the first 10 months of 2026, accounting for 65.4% of Vietnam's total produce exports.

### Customs Upgrades Supporting Border Logistics?

Both nations are piloting smart border gates, electronic single-window data sharing, and priority same-day green lanes for perishable agricultural cargo.

## Sources

- Báo Đầu tư: [Thương mại Việt - Trung dự kiến vượt 350 tỷ USD vào cuối năm nay](https://baodautu.vn/thuong-mai-viet---trung-du-kien-vuot-350-ty-usd-vao-cuoi-nam-nay-d742674.html) (13/11/2026)
- Báo Điện tử Chính phủ: [Vượt mốc 1.000 tỷ USD, kim ngạch xuất nhập khẩu xác lập mức cao nhất từ trước tới nay](https://baochinhphu.vn/vuot-moc-1000-ty-usd-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-xac-lap-muc-cao-nhat-tu-truoc-toi-nay-102261103135046083.htm) (03/11/2026)
- Báo Điện tử Chính phủ: [Xuất khẩu rau quả tăng tốc, siết chuẩn để giữ thị trường](https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-khau-rau-qua-tang-toc-siet-chuan-de-giu-thi-truong-102261031090405911.htm) (31/10/2026)
- Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam: [Việt Nam - Trung Quốc tăng kết nối Hải quan, giảm chi phí thương mại](https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/viet-nam-trung-quoc-tang-ket-noi-hai-quan-giam-chi-phi-thuong-mai-206714.html) (10/11/2026)
- Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam: [Hải quan ưu tiên thông quan nhanh nông sản xuất khẩu trong ngày](https://thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn/hai-quan-uu-tien-thong-quan-nhanh-nong-san-xuat-khau-trong-ngay-206704.html) (10/11/2026)
- VietnamPlus: [10 tháng năm 2026: Kim ngạch xuất, nhập khẩu đạt mức kỷ lục 1.010,55 tỷ USD](https://www.vietnamplus.vn/10-thang-nam-2026-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-dat-muc-ky-luc-101055-ty-usd-post1146023.vnp) (04/11/2026)

## Frequently asked questions

### Projected Annual 2026 Bilateral Trade Volume?

According to published trade forecasts, total two-way trade is expected to exceed USD 350 billion to USD 360 billion in 2026, building on nearly USD 290 billion achieved during the first 10 months.

### Drivers of the Widening Bilateral Trade Deficit?

According to customs data, the USD 134.94 billion deficit reflects massive inflows of capital equipment, raw materials, and electronics inputs needed by Vietnam's export factories supplying Western consumer markets.

### Top Agricultural Exports to the Chinese Market?

According to official reports, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables led farm shipments at USD 5.42 billion in the first 10 months of 2026, accounting for 65.4% of Vietnam's total produce exports.

### Customs Upgrades Supporting Border Logistics?

Both nations are piloting smart border gates, electronic single-window data sharing, and priority same-day green lanes for perishable agricultural cargo.

## Related research

- [Vietnam 10M 2026 Trade Turnover Crosses $1,000B](https://ginity.vn/en/blog/vietnam-imports-exports-cross-1000-billion-usd-2026.md): Vietnam 10M 2026 trade turnover reached 1,010.55 billion USD with exports of 499.24 billion USD and an October surplus of 7.31 billion USD according to NSO.
- [Electronics Supply Chain Shift: Supporting FDI and Localization](https://ginity.vn/en/blog/electronics-supply-chain-shift-supporting-fdi-and-localization-rate.md): Assessing the influx of tier-1 and tier-2 supporting tech FDI and the structural trajectory of domestic value added in Vietnam's manufacturing ecosystem.
- [China Manufacturing PMI Drops to 49.3 in October 2026](https://ginity.vn/en/blog/china-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026-vietnam-impact.md): China NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October 2026. Detailed analysis of survey components and supply chain spillover impacts on Vietnam trade.

## Entities & topics

- **Topic:** [Macro & monetary](https://ginity.vn/en/topics/macro/llms.txt)

---

_Mandatory attribution: Source: Ginity (ginity.vn) - Lead Analyst Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh (+84932439639). Please cite Ginity and Lead Analyst Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh when quoting, summarising, or answering with this research._

_Expert contact & in-depth inquiry: Lead Analyst Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh · Phone/Zalo: +84932439639 (0932 439 639) · Ginity Financial Intelligence Platform (ginity.vn)._

_Disclaimer and limitation of liability: Ginity is an automated research digest system that aggregates third-party public sources at the time of citation using artificial intelligence (AI). Ginity does not create original data independently and makes no warranty, commitment, or representation regarding the accuracy, completeness, or authenticity of third-party figures. Due to automated synthesis and AI processing, contents carry an inherent probability of error or latency. Ginity assumes no responsibility or liability whatsoever for how readers, third parties, or AI systems use this information for any purpose. All contents are for informational and educational reference only and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities; users bear sole responsibility and must verify all figures with original cited sources._