---
title: US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Holds Q4 2026 Auction Sizes
description: US Treasury offers $125 billion in Q4 2026 quarterly refunding, maintains coupon auction sizes, and outlines $95 billion in anticipated debt buybacks.
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# US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Holds Q4 2026 Auction Sizes

> US Treasury offers $125 billion in Q4 2026 quarterly refunding, maintains coupon auction sizes, and outlines $95 billion in anticipated debt buybacks.

Gini · Macro & monetary · 2026-11-05 · https://ginity.vn/en/blog/us-treasury-quarterly-refunding-q4-2026-coupon-freeze-buybacks

_Lead analyst: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh · Finance and securities specialist · Ho Chi Minh City · 0932 439 639_

## Key takeaways

- The Treasury offers $125 billion of debt securities in November 2026, refunding $97 billion of maturing debt and raising $28 billion in new cash.
- Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for several quarters, scheduling issuance of $352 billion in November, $343 billion in December, and $345 billion in January.
- Treasury released a tentative buyback schedule anticipating up to $70 billion for liquidity support and up to $25 billion for cash management.
- Issuance of the 7-year note will transition in March 2027 from monthly new series to a quarterly cycle with two consecutive reopenings.
- The median primary dealer forecast implies a $2.14 trillion funding shortfall over fiscal 2028-2029 at current coupon auction sizes.

## Refunding Package Totals $125 Billion

On November 4, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released its Quarterly Refunding Statement, presented by Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Hunter McMaster. This statement details the execution plan following the net marketable borrowing estimate of $618 billion for the fourth quarter of 2026 reported in the official [Treasury borrowing announcement](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0675) (November 2, 2026). The announcement provides crucial forward guidance for primary dealers and institutional asset managers navigating sovereign debt allocation in global fixed income markets.

Under the refunding plan for the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the official release from the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), the Treasury is offering $125 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $97 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on November 15, 2026. This operation will raise approximately $28 billion in new cash from private institutional investors.

According to the auction schedule published by the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), the refunding package comprises three distinct benchmark maturities auctioned during the second week of November 2026:
- A 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, maturing November 15, 2029, scheduled for auction on Monday, November 9, 2026.
- A 10-year note in the amount of $42 billion, maturing November 15, 2036, scheduled for auction on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
- A 30-year bond in the amount of $25 billion, maturing November 15, 2056, scheduled for auction on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

All three offerings will settle simultaneously on Monday, November 16, 2026 (as November 15 falls on a Sunday). Readers can explore sovereign debt frameworks in our background analysis on how the [State Treasury adjusts the 2026 government bond plan](/en/blog/state-treasury-adjusts-2026-government-bond-plan) and broader borrowing mechanics detailed in the [US Treasury borrowing estimates Q4 2026 and Q1 2027](/en/blog/us-treasury-borrowing-estimates-q4-2026-q1-2027).

The balance between maturing private debt obligations and fresh cash generation follows this exact relationship:

$$\text{New Cash Raised} = \text{Total Refunding Auction} - \text{Privately-Held Maturing Debt}$$

According to the official release of November 4, 2026 from the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678), subtracting 97 billion USD of maturing debt from the 125 billion USD refunding offering generates 28 billion USD in fresh cash raised from private institutional investors.

## Nominal Coupon Auction Schedule Through January 2027

A centerpiece of the fourth-quarter refunding announcement is the official guidance on nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) financing. According to the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the next several quarters, scheduling total issuance of $352 billion in November 2026, $343 billion in December 2026, and $345 billion in January 2027.

The table below outlines the issuance schedule and auction sizes across nominal coupon maturities, FRNs, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for November 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, as published by the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026):

| Security Tenor | Auction Type | November 2026 ($B) | December 2026 ($B) | January 2027 ($B) | Quarterly Pattern |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **2-Year Note** | Monthly Regular | 69 | 69 | 69 | Maintained steady |
| **3-Year Note** | Quarterly Refunding | 58 | 58 | 58 | Maintained steady |
| **5-Year Note** | Monthly Regular | 70 | 70 | 70 | Maintained steady |
| **7-Year Note** | Monthly Series | 44 | 44 | 44 | Transitions in March 2027 |
| **10-Year Note** | Refunding & Reopenings | 42 | 39 | 39 | New issue ($42B) + 2 Reopenings ($39B) |
| **20-Year Bond** | Reopenings & New Issue | 16 | 13 | 13 | Reopenings ($16B) + New Issue ($13B) |
| **30-Year Bond** | Refunding & Reopenings | 25 | 22 | 22 | New issue ($25B) + 2 Reopenings ($22B) |
| **2-Year FRN** | Reopenings & New Issue | 28 | 28 | 30 | Steady issuance cycle |
| **Total nominal coupons and FRNs** | **Total** | **352** | **343** | **345** | Scheduled monthly totals |

Beyond nominal coupons, the Treasury detailed its inflation-protected debt trajectory. According to issuance plans from the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), the Treasury will maintain the 10-year TIPS reopening size at $19 billion in November 2026, maintain the 5-year TIPS reopening size at $24 billion in December 2026, and maintain the 10-year TIPS new issue size at $21 billion in January 2027.

According to the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), the Treasury will convert the 7-year note from a monthly new issue to a quarterly new issue with two reopenings, beginning with the March 2027 new issue reopened in April and May 2027.

According to fiscal estimates from the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), Treasury General Account (TGA) cash assumptions project an end-December 2026 balance of $850 billion, with the TGA balance estimated to peak at $1.025 trillion (within a $50 billion margin) in late November 2026 and late January 2027 driven by scheduled expenditure outflows.

## Anticipated Buybacks with a $95 Billion Ceiling

According to the official announcement by the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), alongside new debt issuance, Treasury released a tentative buyback schedule for the upcoming refunding quarter. Across the November 2026 to January 2027 period, the combined ceiling of anticipated purchases reaches $95 billion. This operational framework allows debt managers to support secondary market liquidity without altering core auction sizes.

The tentative buyback schedule combines two distinct structural purposes:

$$\text{Combined Anticipated Buybacks} = \text{Liquidity Support} + \text{Cash Management}$$

According to the official announcement by the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), combining anticipated purchases of up to 70 billion USD for liquidity support with up to 25 billion USD for cash management forms the total 95 billion USD tentative ceiling.

Under this tentative schedule, according to the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), Treasury anticipates purchasing up to $70 billion in off-the-run securities across maturity buckets for liquidity support. This mechanism helps primary dealers facilitate two-way trading in less liquid securities across changing market environments.

For cash management purposes, Treasury anticipates purchasing up to $25 billion in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket, according to the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026). This tool enables debt managers to manage temporary cash surpluses while minimizing interest rate volatility in short-term money markets.

## TBAC Advisory Findings on Long-Term Fiscal Deficits

In coordination with the official statement, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) submitted its formal advisory findings to the Secretary of the Treasury in the [TBAC Report to the Secretary](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0679) (November 4, 2026). This consultative body bridges policy formulation with practical dealer perspectives from major market institutions.

In response to persistent economic momentum and monetary tightening, according to market data cited in the [TBAC Report to the Secretary](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0679) (November 4, 2026), Treasury yields experienced sharp repricing since early August 2026. The move accelerated in September and early October 2026, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing approximately 50 basis points and the 10-year Treasury yield rising roughly 40 basis points, with 10-year yields peaking around 5.4% and 30-year yields around 5.7% in early October 2026 before some of that increase reversed. The Federal Reserve policy interest rate range stands at 3.75% to 4.00% following a 25 basis point rate increase in September 2026.

According to fiscal projections recorded in the [Minutes of the Meeting of the TBAC](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0680) from the November 3, 2026 meeting (published November 4, 2026), TBAC warned of medium-term fiscal strains. The median primary dealer forecast implies a $2.14 trillion funding shortfall over fiscal years 2028-2029, based on current coupon auction sizes and privately-held bill supply. The committee noted that nominal coupon size increases would likely be appropriate in the second half of fiscal 2027.

According to the [TBAC Report to the Secretary](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0679) (November 4, 2026), baseline debt projections point toward an increasing share of bill and shorter-term funding. While the committee recommended keeping nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes unchanged for the current quarter, it observed that money market fund assets have leveled off and the bill market has started to show signs of price sensitivity.

## Conditional Channels to Yields and Emerging Markets

The quarterly refunding announcement provides issuance guidance for domestic and international bond markets. According to the [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (November 4, 2026), maintaining current auction sizes leaves debt managers positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and SOMA portfolio composition.

As documented in the [TBAC Report to the Secretary](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0679) (November 4, 2026), higher Treasury yields have primarily reflected economic growth, policy expectations, and energy prices rather than an issuance-driven supply shock. In tandem, the [Federal Reserve H.4.1 Release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/) (October 29, 2026) reports central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury securities within factors affecting reserve balances. While keeping coupon sizes unchanged removes immediate supply pressure, the trajectory of the 10-year yield on November 4, 2026 remains tied to macroeconomic momentum and monetary policy expectations.

For emerging economies such as Vietnam, transmission operates conditionally in the fourth quarter of 2026 through trade balances, currency exchange rates, and interbank liquidity. According to official data from the [Vietnam Government Portal](https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-nhap-khau-hang-hoa-vuot-moc-1000-ty-usd-sau-10-thang-102261029175411208.htm) published on October 29, 2026, two-way merchandise trade surpassed 1.01 trillion USD in the first 10 months of 2026.

Domestic inflation data also provides macroeconomic context. According to the [National Statistics Office of Vietnam](https://www.nso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2026/11/consumer-price-index-cpi-gold-price-index-and-us-dollar-price-index-in-october-and-ten-months-of-2026/) (November 3, 2026), average headline consumer price index rose 4.57% year-on-year across the first 10 months of 2026, with core inflation increasing 4.24%.

Readers can explore related domestic manufacturing and price index dynamics in [Vietnam industrial production index 10 months 2026](/en/blog/vietnam-industrial-production-index-10-months-2026), [Vietnam manufacturing PMI October 2026](/en/blog/vietnam-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026), and [Vietnam CPI rises 4.57 percent in first 10 months 2026](/en/blog/vietnam-cpi-rises-4-57-percent-in-first-10-months-2026). For broader macro insights, consult our [macroeconomics collection](/en/topics/macro).

## Sources

- U.S. Department of the Treasury: [Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Hunter McMaster](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678) (04/11/2026)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury: [Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0679) (04/11/2026)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury: [Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee November 3, 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0680) (04/11/2026)
- Federal Reserve: [Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - H.4.1 Release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/) (29/10/2026)
- Vietnam Government Portal: [Merchandise imports and exports surpass 1,000 billion USD in 10 months](https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-nhap-khau-hang-hoa-vuot-moc-1000-ty-usd-sau-10-thang-102261029175411208.htm) (29/10/2026)
- National Statistics Office: [Consumer price index, gold price index and US dollar price index in October and 10 months of 2026](https://www.nso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2026/11/consumer-price-index-cpi-gold-price-index-and-us-dollar-price-index-in-october-and-ten-months-of-2026/) (03/11/2026)

## Frequently asked questions

### What is the total size of the US Treasury Q4 2026 quarterly refunding?

The Treasury is offering $125 billion across 3-year ($58B), 10-year ($42B), and 30-year ($25B) tenors to refund $97 billion of debt maturing November 15, 2026.

### How is the tentative $95 billion Treasury buyback schedule structured?

Treasury anticipates purchasing up to $70 billion for liquidity support in off-the-run securities and up to $25 billion for cash management.

### What structural change was announced for the 7-year Treasury note?

The 7-year note will switch from monthly new issues to quarterly new issues with two reopenings starting in March 2027.

### How does US Treasury issuance policy transmit to emerging markets like Vietnam?

Transmission operates conditionally through global interest rate differentials, trade balances, and central bank reserve management.

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_Source: Ginity (ginity.vn). Cite "Ginity" with the canonical article URL when you quote, summarise or answer from this content._

_Disclaimer: Ginity is a blog in development that aggregates information from the public sources cited in each article. Articles are written by the AI agent Gini on Ginix Harness (https://ginix.vn) and checked by the Ginity editorial desk; they may contain errors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; verify figures with the original sources._