--- title: "RBA Hikes Cash Rate to 4.85% on November 3, 2026: Channels" description: The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 bps to 4.85% on November 3, 2026, amid 4.3% inflation. We examine the decision and transmission channels to Vietnam. url: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/rba-interest-rate-decision-november-3-2026 canonical: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/rba-interest-rate-decision-november-3-2026 markdown: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/rba-interest-rate-decision-november-3-2026.md language: en datePublished: 2026-11-03T00:00:00+07:00 dateModified: 2026-11-03T00:00:00+07:00 author: name: Gini url: https://ginity.vn/en/authors/gini reviewer: Ginity Editorial Desk analyst: name: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh role: Finance and securities specialist location: Ho Chi Minh City telephone: "+84932439639" generatedBy: name: Ginix Harness url: https://ginix.vn desk: id: macro name: Macro & monetary url: https://ginity.vn/en/topics/macro tickers: - AUDUSD - AUDVND sources: [] publisher: Ginity attribution: 'Source: Ginity (ginity.vn). Cite "Ginity" with the canonical article URL when you quote, summarise or answer from this content.' disclaimer: "Disclaimer: Ginity is a blog in development that aggregates information from the public sources cited in each article. Articles are written by the AI agent Gini on Ginix Harness (https://ginix.vn) and checked by the Ginity editorial desk; they may contain errors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; verify figures with the original sources." usageTerms: https://ginity.vn/ai.txt --- # RBA Hikes Cash Rate to 4.85% on November 3, 2026: Channels > The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 bps to 4.85% on November 3, 2026, amid 4.3% inflation. We examine the decision and transmission channels to Vietnam. Gini · Macro & monetary · 2026-11-03 · https://ginity.vn/en/blog/rba-interest-rate-decision-november-3-2026 _Lead analyst: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh · Finance and securities specialist · Ho Chi Minh City · 0932 439 639_ ## Key takeaways - The RBA Board increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% on November 3, 2026. - The policy decision was approved by majority, with 6 members voting for 4.85% and 3 members voting for 4.60%. - Headline inflation stood at 4.3% in September 2026, with the RBA forecasting inflation above 3% and returning to 2–3% by late 2027. - Transmission operates across 3 conditional channels: foreign currency costs, commodity import pricing, and bilateral contracts. According to official media release [RBA Media Release MR-26-30](https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html) published on November 3, 2026, the Monetary Policy Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% per annum. The Board passed the policy decision by majority, with six members voting to lift the benchmark rate to 4.85% and three members voting to hold at 4.60%. The policy move continues the sequence of global central bank adjustments evaluated during the [global central bank super week in 2026](https://ginity.vn/en/blog/global-central-bank-super-week-vietnam-fx-cushion-2026), responding to broad-based price pressures and tight domestic productive capacity. ## Decision Context and Cash Rate Progression According to historical records published on the [RBA Cash Rate Target](https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/) platform, as of November 3, 2026, the Australian cash rate target stands at 4.85% per annum. The Australian central bank executed five tightening steps across 2026: raising the cash rate target to 3.85% on February 4, 2026, to 4.10% on March 18, 2026, to 4.35% on May 6, 2026, pausing at 4.35% during June 17, 2026, and August 12, 2026, lifting to 4.60% on September 29, 2026 (effective September 30, 2026), and increasing to 4.85% on November 3, 2026. > Chart: RBA cash rate target increases to 4.85% across 2026. % per annum. Feb 26: 3.85; Mar 26: 4.10; May 26: 4.35; Sep 26: 4.60; Nov 26: 4.85. According to official media release MR-26-27 published on September 29, 2026, at [RBA Media Release MR-26-27](https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html), Governor Michele Bullock noted that the September rate increase was required because services inflation proved sticky and consumer demand showed resilience. The Board affirmed at that time that bringing consumer price inflation back into the 2.0% to 3.0% target band remained its central priority throughout 2026. Price pressures intensified further in the third quarter of 2026. According to official data published on October 28, 2026, by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at [ABS CPI Release](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-43-year-september-2026), headline consumer price inflation climbed to 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, accelerating from 4.0% in August 2026. Month-on-month consumer prices increased 0.8% in September 2026. The trimmed mean core inflation measure reached 3.6% year-on-year in September 2026. Over the 12 months to September 2026, housing costs rose 5.2% and transport expenses increased 8.7%. According to comparative methods, to evaluate the 4.85% nominal cash rate as of November 3, 2026, against trailing inflation, the trailing ex-post arithmetic difference is calculated as follows: $$\text{Trailing Ex-Post Spread} = \text{Nominal Cash Rate} - \text{Trailing CPI Rate}$$ According to Ginity calculations as of November 3, 2026, taking the 4.85% cash rate target announced by the RBA and the 4.30% annual headline inflation rate released by the ABS for September 2026, the mechanical trailing difference is determined: $$\text{Trailing Ex-Post Spread} = 4.85\% - 4.30\% = +0.55\%$$ According to Ginity calculations, this arithmetic represents strictly a trailing ex-post spread against historical September 2026 inflation, rather than a canonical ex-ante real interest rate based on forward inflation expectations, and is not employed by the RBA as a definitive policy conclusion. Readers seeking an analytical framework for monitoring policy adjustments can read our [macroeconomic news reading guide](https://ginity.vn/en/blog/reading-macro-news-cpi-rates-fx). ## 25 bps Cash Rate Hike to 4.85% and Voting Breakdown According to official media release MR-26-30 published by the RBA on November 3, 2026, at [RBA Media Release MR-26-30](https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html), the Monetary Policy Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% per annum. The decision was reached by majority: six members voted to raise the cash rate target to 4.85%, while three members voted to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.60%. The official statement outlined three core macroeconomic considerations underpinning the November 3, 2026, rate increase: First, according to updated forecasts published by the RBA in media release MR-26-30, underlying inflation remains broadly based across consumer goods and services categories. Staff revised the inflation outlook materially higher: inflation is now expected to remain above 3% across 2027, and is not forecast to return to the 2.0% to 3.0% target band until late 2027, roughly three quarters later than earlier projections suggested. Second, according to RBA Board assessments published on November 3, 2026, domestic capacity pressures were judged to be tighter than previously estimated. High volumes of artificial intelligence investment continue to drive rapid price growth in technology-related hardware and infrastructure. Liaison reports published by the central bank indicate that businesses face sustained input cost pressures and are actively adjusting their final prices. These developments elevate the risk that higher inflation expectations become entrenched. Third, according to statements published by the Board on November 3, 2026, previous interest rate increases in 2026 have tightened overall financial conditions, contributing to slower economic output, lower dwelling prices, and higher unemployment. However, given the revised inflation outlook and persistence of price pressures, the majority judged that a further 25 basis point tightening step to 4.85% on November 3, 2026, was required to steer inflation sustainably back toward the midpoint of the target corridor. ## Three Conditional Transmission Channels to Vietnam Shifts in RBA monetary policy transmit to Vietnamese corporate planning and financial markets through three conditional channels: ```flow Three Conditional Transmission Channels to Vietnam: According to RBA statements published on November 3, 2026, the 4.85% cash rate transmits through three channels Bilateral AUD/VND Foreign Exchange Rate Widened yield differential supports the Australian dollar, elevating local-currency conversion costs for overseas expenses Industrial Commodity and Input Import Costs Australia supplies critical metallurgical coal and iron ore; currency shifts add conditional pressure on import costs in VND Bilateral Trade Expansion and Macro Flows Trading enterprises actively hedge currency exposures and review bilateral settlement contracts for late 2026 ``` ### Bilateral AUD/VND Foreign Exchange Rate According to official exchange rate tracking tools provided by Vietcombank at [Vietcombank Exchange Rate](https://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en-US/Personal/Tools-and-Utilities/Foreign-Exchange-Rates), currency markets closely track Australian dollar quotations following RBA policy shifts. According to Ginity transmission analysis as of November 3, 2026, the 25 basis point rate increase to 4.85% widens the nominal yield differential favoring Australian dollar assets. In economic transmission terms, higher relative yields support the currency on international foreign exchange desks. If this yield premium leads to an appreciation in the AUD/VND exchange rate, domestic buyers face higher local-currency costs for overseas education, student maintenance, family remittances, and travel expenses across the fourth quarter of 2026. Conversely, if stable foreign reserves and macro management anchor the currency around prevailing rates, foreign exchange conversion expenses will remain stable, consistent with patterns examined in our review of [exchange rate shifts in late October 2026](https://ginity.vn/en/blog/usd-vnd-exchange-rate-late-october-2026). ### Industrial Commodity and Input Import Costs Australia serves as an essential exporter of raw industrial commodities to Vietnam, providing metallurgical coal, thermal coal, iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and agricultural products. According to price monitoring tables published by the central bank on November 2, 2026, at [RBA Commodity Prices](https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/commodity-prices/2026/icp-1026.html), the preliminary Index of Commodity Prices fell 1.3% month-on-month in SDR terms during October 2026, yet remained 12.5% higher than in October 2025. The bulk commodities category, which includes coking coal and iron ore, was 13.9% higher year-on-year in October 2026. According to media release MR-26-30 published by the RBA on November 3, 2026, higher global energy and fuel costs continue to feed through into broader production expenses. Vietnamese steel producers and construction materials manufacturers procure Australian raw commodities under multi-month supply contracts. When the cash rate is set at 4.85%, any strengthening of the Australian dollar combined with elevated coal and iron ore quotations adds conditional upward pressure on landed import costs in Vietnamese dong, influencing fourth-quarter 2026 manufacturing margins. ### Bilateral Trade Expansion and Macro Flows Bilateral economic relations between Vietnam and Australia continue to expand under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership framework. As reported by the Government Electronic Information Portal on August 11, 2026, at [Baochinhphu Vietnam-Australia Financial Cooperation](https://baochinhphu.vn/viet-nam-australia-thuc-day-hop-tac-tai-chinh-huong-toi-kim-ngach-thuong-mai-20-ty-usd-102260811192453529.htm), two-way merchandise turnover between Vietnam and Australia reached 8.2 billion USD during the first six months of 2026, expanding 21.9% compared to the first half of 2025. Both governments continue implementing the Enhanced Economic Engagement Strategy to work toward a 20 billion USD bilateral trade target. Australia also committed 98.3 million AUD in non-refundable official development assistance for the 2026–2027 fiscal interval. On the domestic trade balance, official data published on October 6, 2026, by the [NSO Socio-Economic Report](https://www.nso.gov.vn/bai-top/2026/10/mot-so-net-chinh-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026/) show that Vietnam total trade turnover reached 888.02 billion USD in the first nine months of 2026, up 30.4% year-on-year. For September 2026 alone, trade turnover reached 117.69 billion USD, generating a trade surplus of 1.27 billion USD. According to market analysis, monitoring the 4.85% cash rate target allows trading enterprises to evaluate foreign currency exposure and hedge input contracts across the remainder of 2026. ## Summary of Key Macroeconomic Indicators The table below details the updated macroeconomic indicators following the November 3, 2026, rate announcement: | Economic Indicator | Reporting Period | Observed Value | Prior Period Value | Primary Source | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Policy Cash Rate Target | As of November 3, 2026 | 4.85% per annum | 4.60% (as of September 30, 2026) | RBA MR-26-30 | | Headline CPI Inflation (YoY) | September 2026 | 4.30% | 4.00% (August 2026) | ABS Media Release | | Headline CPI Inflation (MoM) | September 2026 | 0.80% | 0.40% (August 2026) | ABS Media Release | | Trimmed Mean Core Inflation (YoY) | September 2026 | 3.60% | 3.50% (August 2026) | ABS Media Release | | Housing CPI Component (YoY) | September 2026 | 5.20% | 5.00% (August 2026) | ABS Media Release | | Transport CPI Component (YoY) | September 2026 | 8.70% | 6.80% (August 2026) | ABS Media Release | | Commodity Price Index (SDR terms) | October 2026 | -1.30% month-on-month | +12.50% year-on-year | RBA Commodity Index | Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Bureau of Statistics official releases published in October 2026 and November 2026. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What is the current RBA cash rate target? According to official media release MR-26-30 published on November 3, 2026, the RBA cash rate target stands at 4.85% per annum following a 25 basis point hike. ### What was the voting outcome on November 3, 2026? According to the voting breakdown published by the RBA on November 3, 2026, the decision was passed by majority, with six members voting to hike to 4.85% and three members voting to hold at 4.60%. ### How does the RBA rate hike affect Vietnam? According to Ginity conditional analysis as of November 3, 2026, the 4.85% cash rate hike transmits through three primary channels: the AUD/VND exchange rate, import costs for coal and iron ore, and bilateral trade flows. ## Sources - Reserve Bank of Australia: [Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision](https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html) (2026-11-03) - Reserve Bank of Australia: [Cash Rate Target Historical Changes](https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/) (2026-11-03) - Reserve Bank of Australia: [Statement by Michele Bullock on Monetary Policy Decision](https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html) (2026-09-29) - Australian Bureau of Statistics: [Consumer Price Index Australia September 2026](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-43-year-september-2026) (2026-10-28) - Reserve Bank of Australia: [Index of Commodity Prices October 2026](https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/commodity-prices/2026/icp-1026.html) (2026-11-02) - Vietnam Government News: [Vietnam - Australia Financial Cooperation toward 20 Billion USD Bilateral Trade](https://baochinhphu.vn/viet-nam-australia-thuc-day-hop-tac-tai-chinh-huong-toi-kim-ngach-thuong-mai-20-ty-usd-102260811192453529.htm) (2026-08-11) - National Statistics Office: [Socio-Economic Situation in Q3 and Nine Months of 2026](https://www.nso.gov.vn/bai-top/2026/10/mot-so-net-chinh-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026/) (2026-10-06) - Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam: [Official Foreign Exchange Rates Portal](https://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en-US/Personal/Tools-and-Utilities/Foreign-Exchange-Rates) (2026-11-03) ## Frequently asked questions ### What is the current RBA cash rate target? According to official media release MR-26-30 published on November 3, 2026, the RBA cash rate target stands at 4.85% per annum following a 25 basis point hike. ### What was the voting outcome on November 3, 2026? According to the voting breakdown published by the RBA on November 3, 2026, the decision was passed by majority, with six members voting to hike to 4.85% and three members voting to hold at 4.60%. ### How does the RBA rate hike affect Vietnam? According to Ginity conditional analysis as of November 3, 2026, the 4.85% cash rate hike transmits through three primary channels: the AUD/VND exchange rate, import costs for coal and iron ore, and bilateral trade flows. --- _Source: Ginity (ginity.vn). Cite "Ginity" with the canonical article URL when you quote, summarise or answer from this content._ _Disclaimer: Ginity is a blog in development that aggregates information from the public sources cited in each article. Articles are written by the AI agent Gini on Ginix Harness (https://ginix.vn) and checked by the Ginity editorial desk; they may contain errors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; verify figures with the original sources._