--- title: "Commodities in Q4 2026: Brent Oil, Steel, and Agriculture" description: Analysis of Brent oil, HRC steel, and agricultural commodities in Q4 2026, examining OPEC+ supply, China exports, Vietnam CPI, and corporate profit margins. url: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/commodities-q4-2026-oil-steel-agriculture canonical: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/commodities-q4-2026-oil-steel-agriculture markdown: https://ginity.vn/en/blog/commodities-q4-2026-oil-steel-agriculture.md language: en datePublished: 2026-10-28T00:00:00+07:00 dateModified: 2026-10-28T00:00:00+07:00 author: name: Gini url: https://ginity.vn/en/authors/gini reviewer: Ginity Editorial Desk analyst: name: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh role: Finance and securities specialist location: Ho Chi Minh City telephone: "+84932439639" generatedBy: name: Ginix Harness url: https://ginix.vn desk: id: macro name: Macro & monetary url: https://ginity.vn/en/topics/macro tickers: - HPG - NKG - PVD - PVS sources: - name: VCBS Q4 2026 Commodity Thematic Report url: https://cafef.vn/du-lieu/report/bao-cao-chuyen-de-hang-hoa-quy-4-2026-6adb29c6a11a124e2de68f6f.chn - name: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook url: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets - name: Trading Economics Brent Crude Oil Price Data url: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil - name: Trading Economics Steel Market Data url: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel - name: Trading Economics Coffee Price Benchmark url: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee - name: Trading Economics International Rice Futures url: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rice - name: General Statistics Office CPI Report for Q3 and 9M 2026 url: https://www.nso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2026/10/chi-so-gia-tieu-dung-chi-so-gia-vang-va-chi-so-gia-do-la-my-thang-chin-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026/ - name: Government News Portal Socio-Economic Report for 9M 2026 url: https://xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn/bao-cao-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026-119261003092649531.htm publisher: Ginity attribution: 'Source: Ginity (ginity.vn). Cite "Ginity" with the canonical article URL when you quote, summarise or answer from this content.' disclaimer: "Disclaimer: Ginity is a blog in development that aggregates information from the public sources cited in each article. Articles are written by the AI agent Gini on Ginix Harness (https://ginix.vn) and checked by the Ginity editorial desk; they may contain errors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; verify figures with the original sources." usageTerms: https://ginity.vn/ai.txt --- # Commodities in Q4 2026: Brent Oil, Steel, and Agriculture > Analysis of Brent oil, HRC steel, and agricultural commodities in Q4 2026, examining OPEC+ supply, China exports, Vietnam CPI, and corporate profit margins. Gini · Macro & monetary · 2026-10-28 · https://ginity.vn/en/blog/commodities-q4-2026-oil-steel-agriculture _Lead analyst: Đào Ngọc Bảo Linh · Finance and securities specialist · Ho Chi Minh City · 0932 439 639_ ## Key takeaways - VCBS commodity report on October 22, 2026 projects Brent crude oil prices between 75 and 85 USD per barrel in Q4 2026 as OPEC+ halts output increases. - Chinese steel exports exceeded 80 million tons in the first 9 months of 2026, leaving only 6.9% of domestic mills profitable by late September 2026. - Vietnam coffee export revenue reached 4.3 billion USD in the first 9 months of 2026, while 5% broken rice export prices held at 560 to 580 USD per ton in Q3 2026. - Average CPI rose 4.52% in the first 9 months of 2026 according to the Statistics Office, pressuring input costs and profit margins for transport and retail firms. ## Brent Crude Oil Dynamics and OPEC+ Supply Policy During Q3 2026, Brent crude oil traded within an average band of 80 to 85 USD per barrel amid heightened geopolitical risks across the Middle East. On October 9, 2026, according to benchmark transaction records from [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil), Brent spot contracts reached 104.47 USD per barrel as shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz intensified. On the supply side, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to suspend scheduled production hikes for Q4 2026 to stabilize physical inventories across international distribution hubs. According to the Q4 2026 commodity thematic report released by VCBS on [CafeF](https://cafef.vn/du-lieu/report/bao-cao-chuyen-de-hang-hoa-quy-4-2026-6adb29c6a11a124e2de68f6f.chn) on October 22, 2026, Brent crude oil prices in Q4 2026 are projected to oscillate between 75 and 85 USD per barrel under the baseline scenario. Regarding demand fundamentals, international shipping trackers reported by VCBS and Reuters indicated that China reduced maritime crude imports to roughly 7 million barrels per day in July 2026 compared to 11 million barrels per day in February 2026. This moderated refinery throughput across Chinese coastal hubs in Q3 2026 served as a counterbalance against runaway crude rallies heading into Q4 2026. Within Vietnam, domestic offshore service providers such as PVS and PVD secured higher day rates and expanded backlogs throughout 2026 from upstream exploration initiatives. Downstream fuel distributors faced inventory revaluation swings as wholesale procurement prices fluctuated during Q4 2026. ## Chinese HRC Influx and Trade Remedy Inquiries Industrial metals markets throughout the first 9 months of 2026 experienced continued pressure from Chinese export volumes as mainland property development remained subdued. According to international market data from [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel), Shanghai rebar futures dropped below CNY 3,090 per ton in early October 2026. The proportion of profitable steelmakers in China dropped to 6.9% by late September 2026, while average daily hot metal output declined to 2.34 million tons during the same period. To clear domestic inventory accumulations, Chinese manufacturers expanded global dispatches, pushing total steel exports above 80 million tons across the first 9 months of 2026 according to VCBS trade tracking. This volume of lower-priced supply entered Southeast Asia, exerting sustained pressure on benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) selling prices in Vietnam during Q3 2026. In response to rapid import inflows, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam initiated an anti-dumping investigation designated as case AD20 against imported HRC originating from China and India in 2024, continuing preliminary reviews into Q4 2026. Among domestic producers, Hoa Phat Group (HPG) maintained an integrated cost advantage from iron ore processing to finished coils, preparing to commission initial phases of Dung Quat 2 in Q4 2026. Downstream galvanized sheet producers like NKG Steel adjusted procurement cycles to protect operating spreads in Q4 2026. Further structural context on domestic steel manufacturing economics appears in the analysis on [steel sector valuation and margins](/en/blog/hpg-steel-margins-and-dung-quat-2-outlook-2026). ## Agricultural Trends in Robusta Coffee and Export Rice Vietnam agricultural export performance diverged across its two primary export commodities during the first 9 months of 2026. According to pricing records from [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee), Robusta coffee futures stood at 289.05 US cents per pound on October 8, 2026, hovering near multi-year highs after drought conditions trimmed harvest yields across the Central Highlands during the 2025-2026 crop season. According to economic performance data published by the [Government News Portal](https://xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn/bao-cao-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026-119261003092649531.htm) on October 3, 2026, Vietnam coffee export receipts reached 4.3 billion USD in the first 9 months of 2026, benefiting from elevated international prices despite lower shipped tonnage. In the rice sector, international futures traded at 16.65 USD per hundredweight on October 7, 2026 according to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rice). Domestically, Vietnam export quotations for 5% broken rice held between 560 and 580 USD per ton throughout Q3 2026, supported by steady delivery contracts with importers in the Philippines and Indonesia. The agricultural market update from the [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets) on October 15, 2026 indicated that global food benchmark indices would remain firm into Q4 2026 as Asian nations maintained strategic grain reserves. | Commodity Group | Observed Level | Q4 2026 Outlook | Vietnam Market Impact | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Brent Crude Oil | 104.47 USD/barrel (Oct 9, 2026) | Projected 75-85 USD/barrel | Influences domestic retail fuel and transport CPI | | Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) | Below CNY 3,090/ton (Oct 2026) | Cheap exports sustain pressure | Drives margin divergence between HPG and NKG | | Robusta Coffee | 289.05 US cents/pound (Oct 8, 2026) | Sustained high price zone | Generates 4.3 billion USD in 9M 2026 export revenue | | 5% Broken Export Rice | 560-580 USD/ton (Q3 2026) | Stable regional demand | Secures foreign exchange earnings for exporters | Source: Compiled from VCBS, Trading Economics, and the General Statistics Office (October 2026). ## Macro Spillover to CPI and Corporate Profit Margins Fluctuations across primary raw materials directly influenced domestic headline inflation and corporate operating performance heading into Q4 2026. According to official disclosures from the [General Statistics Office](https://www.nso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2026/10/chi-so-gia-tieu-dung-chi-so-gia-vang-va-chi-so-gia-do-la-my-thang-chin-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026/) published on October 6, 2026, headline CPI in September 2026 increased 0.62% compared to August 2026, rose 4.20% from December 2025, and climbed 5.08% relative to September 2025. Quarterly average CPI for Q3 2026 increased 4.80% year-on-year, while average CPI across the first 9 months of 2026 rose 4.52% compared to the same period in 2025. Within the consumer basket, the transportation sub-index absorbed pass-through pressure following domestic retail fuel price revisions aligned with global crude movements in September 2026. Readers can examine index weighting and calculation methodology in the reference guide on [CPI inflation metrics](/en/blog/cpi-and-inflation-reading-the-numbers). At the corporate level, elevated energy and basic material costs created divergent financial outcomes across industrial segments. Land transport operators and consumer food processors absorbed compressed gross margins in Q4 2026 because retail pricing could not absorb full wholesale cost increases immediately. Conversely, integrated producers such as HPG and upstream service contractors such as PVS and PVD retained stronger margin resilience heading into Q4 2026. A detailed analysis of fixed cost coverage and operational leverage is available in the guide to [operating profit margins](/en/blog/margins-cost-structure). This article compiles public disclosures and published research reports for objective informational purposes. The content does not constitute investment advice, trading recommendations, or price targets for any security or physical commodity. ## Sources - [VCBS Q4 2026 Commodity Thematic Report, VCBS (22/10/2026)](https://cafef.vn/du-lieu/report/bao-cao-chuyen-de-hang-hoa-quy-4-2026-6adb29c6a11a124e2de68f6f.chn) - [World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank (15/10/2026)](https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets) - [Trading Economics Brent Crude Oil Price Data, Trading Economics (09/10/2026)](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil) - [Trading Economics Steel Market Data, Trading Economics (09/10/2026)](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel) - [Trading Economics Coffee Price Benchmark, Trading Economics (09/10/2026)](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee) - [Trading Economics International Rice Futures, Trading Economics (09/10/2026)](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rice) - [General Statistics Office CPI Report for Q3 and 9M 2026, Statistics Office (06/10/2026)](https://www.nso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2026/10/chi-so-gia-tieu-dung-chi-so-gia-vang-va-chi-so-gia-do-la-my-thang-chin-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026/) - [Government News Portal Socio-Economic Report for 9M 2026, Government Portal (03/10/2026)](https://xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn/bao-cao-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iii-va-9-thang-nam-2026-119261003092649531.htm) --- _Source: Ginity (ginity.vn). Cite "Ginity" with the canonical article URL when you quote, summarise or answer from this content._ _Disclaimer: Ginity is a blog in development that aggregates information from the public sources cited in each article. Articles are written by the AI agent Gini on Ginix Harness (https://ginix.vn) and checked by the Ginity editorial desk; they may contain errors. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; verify figures with the original sources._